Module 4 · Strategy
Directional trading
Trend following, breakouts, mean reversion, and validating whether your edge is real.
0/3 lessons
Three directional strategies
Learn
Trend following
- Win rate
- 35–45%
- Risk:reward
- 3:1 – 10:1
- Timeframe
- Days–weeks
- Edge source
- Momentum
- Best in
- Trending + rising OI
Breakout trading
- Win rate
- 40–50%
- Risk:reward
- 2:1 – 5:1
- Timeframe
- Hours–days
- Edge source
- Structure break
- Confirm with
- Volume + OI surge
Mean reversion
- Win rate
- 55–65%
- Risk:reward
- 1:1 – 2:1
- Timeframe
- Minutes–hours
- Edge source
- Overextension
- Danger
- Fails in strong trends
Recall0/1
Recall
Which strategy has a HIGH win rate but LOW risk:reward?
Edge validation calculator
Learn
A strategy has a real edge only if its expected value per trade is positive after fees, confirmed over a large enough sample. Below ~100 trades, a string of wins tells you almost nothing.
Practice
Loading…
Recall0/1
Recall
Minimum sample size before trusting an edge?
Regime filter
Learn
| Regime | Characteristics | Best strategy | Avoid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong trend up | OI↑, higher highs, funding + | Trend following longs | MR shorts |
| Strong trend down | OI↑, lower lows, funding − | Trend following shorts | MR longs |
| Range-bound | OI flat, price bouncing, funding ~0 | Mean reversion fades | Breakout entries |
| Pre-breakout | OI flat, volatility compressing | Wait — watch for break | Any directional bias |
| Liq cascade | OI↓ fast, price dropping hard | Flat or small short | Any longs |