Macroeconomics & Liquidity

Many crypto assets have behaved like long-duration, high-beta risk exposures in some samples, making rates, real yields, dollar funding, credit conditions, and investor risk appetite relevant. But crypto assets differ: some protocols generate fees, some tokens capture little of them, and the sensitivity changes across regimes.

Global M2 overlays require currency conversion, publication lags, revisions, aggregation choices, and an explicitly chosen lead or lag. Two trending series can appear strongly correlated without a stable causal or tradable relationship. Test rolling relationships out of sample and compare against simpler risk-asset baselines.

Use macro as a scenario input: identify scheduled events, liquidity constraints, and conditions that justify smaller exposure. Do not convert a single overlay into a guaranteed bull-market trigger.