Fundamental & on-chain analysis

Price needs buyers to rise — but it only needs unlocked supply to fall. Tokenomics is the study of the sell side: how many tokens exist, who holds them, at what cost basis, and on what schedule they unlock.

The red flags repeat across every cycle: a small float with a huge locked allocation (early investors waiting to exit), aggressive emissions paying unsustainable yields, and cliff unlocks where months of supply hit the market on one date. None of these need bad intent — just rational holders selling when they finally can.

Market cap prices the circulating float. Fully diluted valuation (FDV) prices *all* tokens that will ever exist at today's price. The gap between them is future dilution — supply that will be sold into your position over time.

A token at $100M market cap with $2B FDV is not 'cheap': you are paying for a claim that will be diluted 20× as supply unlocks. Compare FDVs, not market caps, when comparing projects — and treat a high FDV/mcap ratio as a countdown timer.

Crypto's unfair analytical advantage: the ledger is public. You can watch adoption, accumulation, and distribution directly instead of waiting for quarterly reports. Four footprints carry most of the signal.

Active addresses — network usage trend; divergence from price matters most. Exchange flows — coins moving *to* exchanges are potential sell supply; sustained outflows suggest accumulation into cold storage. Whale movements — large old wallets waking up precede volatility. Realized profit/loss — whether coins moving today are being sold at a gain or a loss (capitulation looks like heavy realized losses).